Supplementary analysis comparing shock frequency estimates from multiple sectors with Cottrell et al., 2019 Nature Sustainability.
Compared to that previous paper, we are not using observational data but simulated data from ISIMIP, covering 6 resources from three sectors (water, fisheries, maize, rice, soybean, wheat). The sectors are not the same, since in the Cottrell et al. paper there are also livestock and aquaculture in addition to fisheries and agriculture.
To compare our global shock frequency and Figure 1 from Cottrell et al., 2019 panels e and c, I calculated the proportion of countries experiencing a shock per sector per year per climate model.
Linear models are fitted to temporal trends per output variable and climate model.
From 1983 until 2100.
Repeating the previous analysis with smooth spans for shocks from 0.25 to 0.75.